waning dividends

The demographic dividends, institutional reform dividends, and globalization dividends released in parallel or successively in the past 30 years of China’s reform and opening up will all face a trend of peaking and falling in parallel or successively. It is inevitable to think about future growth based on the analytical framework formed during these periods of development opportunities. It will fall into inertia and fixed formulas, resulting in large deviations. This book tries to construct a macroeconomic analysis framework adapted to the "post-dividend era"; under this framework, it analyzes several important issues in China's macroeconomic field correspondingly and sub-thematically; finally, it leads readers to explore the path of China's new economic balance.

This book is the author's personal summary and thinking based on his long-term work experience, especially his close and practical observation and understanding of China's macroeconomic development. The book is divided into ten parts. The opening chapter starts with the macroeconomic analysis framework, which lays the foundation for the academic norms of writing this book, and points out the analytical framework for readers to understand China's macroeconomic phenomena and development laws; the second chapter focuses on On China's population issue, it clearly pointed out the macroeconomic implications of China's current and future population structure; extending from population, the third chapter talked about the difference and interrelationship between the long cycle and short cycle of China's economic growth, for the rationale The long-term structural economic problems and short-term problems to be solved urgently provide ideas; then, the author discusses the imbalance and rebalancing of the economic structure, laying the ideological foundation for adjusting the long-term development mode; And the discussion of the real estate bubble reflects the intention of this book to set out to solve the current hot issues in the field of macroeconomics, and thus expounds the author's unique thinking after observation; thus, the author introduces the road to rebalancing of the RMB and the new development of China's urbanization. Opportunities and new challenges; in the last chapter, the author summarizes the development problems and characteristics of the above-mentioned fields, and puts forward "China's new balance-the policy path of transformation".